Re: Disastro o cospirazione? Discussione sulla crisi economica in corso
Inviato da Ashoka il 22/3/2009 14:35:29
La cosa fantastica è che Roubini è diventato il "Guru" economico in questa crisi per averla "prevista" ma se uno va a controllare scopre che la sua tesi era leggermente diversa:
The US as a Net Debtor:The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances
Dalle conclusions
If the U.S. maintains the unsustainable combination of large fiscal deficits and low private savings, one of the two following scenarios is likely to develop:
1. Asian central banks will continue to finance the U.S. fiscal deficit allowing the U.S. to continue to spend more than it earns for bit longer. This implies that Asian currencies will remain weak. But this path is not sustainable for at least three reasons. First, the continued shrinkage of the US manufacturing sector risks generating a severe protectionist backlash. Second, the U.S. will become even more hostage to the political decision of foreign central banks to continue to finance this deficit (and rollover their existing holdings of U.S. debt) rather than shift into other assets. Third, it leads to an accumulation of the U.S. public and foreign debt at rates that will not be acceptable to existing U.S. creditors.
2. Asian central banks stop intervening on the scale needed to finance the U.S. deficit and the U.S. will have to adjust. This adjustment would take two forms. First, the dollar would depreciate sharply without the support provided by Asian central banks. Second, U.S. interest rates would have to rise sharply to attract the financing the U.S. government needs to run large fiscal deficits. There is not a pool of private capital willing to make up the gap at current low U.S. interest rates if Asian central banks stopped financing the U.S. fiscal (and current account) deficit. U.S. consumption would have to fall to generate the higher private savings needed to finance the fiscal deficit (public sector dissavings) in the absence of subsidized financing from Asian central banks. The US current account would improve over time but the adjustment would occur in the worst way for the US, via a sharp recession and a fall in private investment.
Roubini prevedeva che la prima ipotesi non avrebbe potuto verificarsi mentre la seconda avrebbe provocato la crisi. Peccato che non si è per niente verificato quello che era stato previsto al punto 2... ovvero la Cina non ha diminuito i suoi acquisti di debito pubblico USA, i tassi dei titoli di debito USA non sono aumentati ma diminuiti e la crisi è stata innescata dalle politiche monetarie della FED e non dalla Cina.
The US as a Net Debtor:The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances
Dalle conclusions
If the U.S. maintains the unsustainable combination of large fiscal deficits and low private savings, one of the two following scenarios is likely to develop:
1. Asian central banks will continue to finance the U.S. fiscal deficit allowing the U.S. to continue to spend more than it earns for bit longer. This implies that Asian currencies will remain weak. But this path is not sustainable for at least three reasons. First, the continued shrinkage of the US manufacturing sector risks generating a severe protectionist backlash. Second, the U.S. will become even more hostage to the political decision of foreign central banks to continue to finance this deficit (and rollover their existing holdings of U.S. debt) rather than shift into other assets. Third, it leads to an accumulation of the U.S. public and foreign debt at rates that will not be acceptable to existing U.S. creditors.
2. Asian central banks stop intervening on the scale needed to finance the U.S. deficit and the U.S. will have to adjust. This adjustment would take two forms. First, the dollar would depreciate sharply without the support provided by Asian central banks. Second, U.S. interest rates would have to rise sharply to attract the financing the U.S. government needs to run large fiscal deficits. There is not a pool of private capital willing to make up the gap at current low U.S. interest rates if Asian central banks stopped financing the U.S. fiscal (and current account) deficit. U.S. consumption would have to fall to generate the higher private savings needed to finance the fiscal deficit (public sector dissavings) in the absence of subsidized financing from Asian central banks. The US current account would improve over time but the adjustment would occur in the worst way for the US, via a sharp recession and a fall in private investment.
Roubini prevedeva che la prima ipotesi non avrebbe potuto verificarsi mentre la seconda avrebbe provocato la crisi. Peccato che non si è per niente verificato quello che era stato previsto al punto 2... ovvero la Cina non ha diminuito i suoi acquisti di debito pubblico USA, i tassi dei titoli di debito USA non sono aumentati ma diminuiti e la crisi è stata innescata dalle politiche monetarie della FED e non dalla Cina.
Messaggio orinale: https://old.luogocomune.net/site/newbb/viewtopic.php?forum=46&topic_id=4492&post_id=136432