Re: global warming, peak oil ed ambiente

Inviato da  Orwell84 il 23/1/2008 11:15:29
[*Times]World not running out of oil, say experts

[...] A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year, almost half the rate previously believed, leading the consultancy to conclude that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.

Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.

The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Speaking to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Mr Davies said that peaks in world production had been wrongly predicted throughout history but he agreed that oil might peak within a generation “as a result of a peaking of demand rather than supply”.

He said it was inconceivable that oil consumption would be unaffected by government policies to reduce carbon emissions. “There is a distinct possibilty that global oil consumption could peak as a result of such climate policies,” Mr Davies said.

The BP economist's remarks were echoed yesterday by Mr Jackson. “It is the above-ground risks that will influence the rate [of oil output],” he said.

Cera analysed the output of 811 oilfields, which produce 19 billion barrels a year, out of total world output of 32 billion. These included many of the giants, including Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, the largest known oilfield, which has been at the centre of the debate between peak oil analysts and their detractors.

In his book Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons of Simmons & Co, the consultancy, said the big Saudi fields reached their peak output in 1981 but Cera yesterday said that Ghawar was not failing. “There is no technical evidence that Ghawar is about to decline,” said Mr Jackson.

[...]



Rimanendo in tema di ritardi di produzione e declini, pare che il giacimento saudita di Khursaniyah non riesca [*1] ancora a entrare alla sua massima efficienza (500.000 barili al giorno). Pare che la causa di questi ritardi, almeno a detta del Business Intelligence Middle East sia la mancanza di materie prime. Faisal Hasan, capo ricerche di un centro del Kuwait ha infatti dichiarato:

"The costs of raw materials, such as steel and cement, have increased''

Acciaio e cemento. Questa carenza si può forse collegare alle varie bolle immobiliari sparse per il globo, oppure è solo una coincidenza?

Messaggio orinale: https://old.luogocomune.net/site/newbb/viewtopic.php?forum=49&topic_id=1279&post_id=110491