Splendido articolo di Bob Chapman:

Current Volatility Hints At Next Crash

Ciao Descartes,
Ho letto l'articolo ma resto comunque scettico che un gruppo numeroso e con un potere come quello suggerito dall'articolo possa seguire un agenda comune.
Penso che sia molto piu' probabile che ognuno di quei signori abbia una sua agenda, e non e' detto che i programmi coincidano.

Cambiando discorso, non e' che potresti tirare fuori dal tuo cilindro magico qualche articolo sulla recente conversione di JP e Goldman che hanno cessato la loro attivita' come investment banks?
A me sembra quantomeno sospetto che un cambiamento radicale di questa portata, che ha avuto un impatto drammatico per istituzioni finanziare (come quella in cui lavoro) e quella di molti hedge funds (come quelli curati per conto terzi dall'istituto dove lavoro), non abbia avuto nessuna (o quasi) copertura mediatica.

JP e GS fino a poche settimane fornivano servizi di prime brokerage. come un broker tradizionale, solo per grossi clienti istituzionali che si sono trovati a dover ricoprire tutte le posizioni da un giorno all'altro.

Ma anche dai "piani alti", silenzio stampa totale....

Ciao,
Stefano

Citazione:

mi piace quando c'e' qualcuno che non le manda a dire....

cmq, direi di aspettare il 15 Novembre per poter emettere il verdetto su questa enorme truffa....poi il dispositivo della sentenza lo leggeremo (dopo) tutti assieme....

Intanto oggi sulla ruota di Milano e' uscito l' 8, nero, pari, Ist 12....con grande soddisfazione dei partecipanti....

Citazione:

Paradossalmente c'è chi invece è scettico del contrario, trovando inverosimile che tali persone non si mettano d'accordo per un profitto comune (vedi Paxtibi in questo thread).

Ma la verità sta in mezzo: ci sono molte società segrete, ognuna con una sua agenda, ma è naturale che ci sia una che è più potente delle altre, la massoneria, e che sia capace di operazioni di questa scala. Adam Smith diceva che dove vedi un gruppo di uomini d'affari chiacchierare, li c'è una cospirazione. La cospirazione è nell'animo umano. Fare cartello a danno degli altri è semplicemente la migliore strategia per vincere. D'altronde si accordano in pubblico quando discutono nel GATT, figuriamoci quanto si accordano in segreto. L'argomento "così tante persone non possono andare d'accordo" è decisamente l'argomento più debole che si possa muovere, come si è visto quando veniva mosso contro l'11 settembre. Ci sono molti altri argomenti molto più concreti che si possono discutere. Io sono il primo a dubitare di ogni mia ipotesi. Il dubbio è l'unica cosa che deve restare sempre in una mente critica.

Citazione:

Di fatto fa ritornare quelle banche sotto il controllo e la protezione della FED, che può quindi manipolarne le riserve aprendogli linee di credito di ultima spiaggia (uffialmente la scusa è proprio quella). Ma il fatto che Roubini lo aveva previsto per filo e per segno (aveva detto che l'intero settore finanziario sarebbe si estinto e che le banche sarebbero state costrette a divenire banche normali) lascia pensare. Vedo se trovo qualcosa.

A volte ritornano (si consiglia la lettura per il solo pubblico adulto - e vaccinato):

link

AT tibberio

accorcia il link, plz.

Citazione:

Mi è piaciuto già dal titolo "Senza etica globalizzazione alla deriva"; eccone un brano

Citazione:

ecco, magari io avrei aggiunto: "per approfondire la parte etica di questo concetto leggere 'confessions of an economic hitman' o guardare i primi 15 minuti di Zeitgeist Addendum"

Della serie: curiamo il cancro con le gommose:

link

L'articolo di Halloween...



Doctor Doom: Get Ready For ‘Stag-Deflation’
Nouriel Roubini
10.30.08, 12:01 AM ET

Back in January, I argued that four major forces would lead to a risk of deflation– or “stag-deflation,” where a recession would be associated with deflationary forces–rather than the inflation that mainstream analysts have worried about.

They were: (1) a slack in goods markets, (2) a re-coupling of the rest of the world with the U.S. recession, (3) a slack in labor markets, and (4) a sharp fall in commodity prices following such U.S. and global contraction, which would reduce inflationary forces and lead to deflationary forces in the global economy.

How has such argument fared over time? And will the U.S. and global economies soon face sharp deflationary pressures? The answer: Deflation and stag-deflation will, in six months, become the main concern of policy authorities.

Why?

First, the U.S. has entered a severe recession that is already leading to deflationary forces in sectors where supply vastly exceeds demand (housing, consumer durables, motor vehicles, etc.). Aggregate demand is falling sharply below aggregate supply. The unemployment rate is up sharply, while employment has been falling for 10 months in a row. And commodity prices are sharply down–about 30% from their July peak–in the last three months, and are likely to fall much more in the next few months as the advanced economies’ recession goes global. So both in the U.S. and in other advanced economies we are clearly headed toward a collapse of headline and core inflation.

Is there any doubt about this ongoing inflation capitulation and the beginning of sharp deflationary forces? Take the current views of the economic research group at JPMorgan Chase. This group was, in 2007-08, the leading voice arguing about the risks of rising global inflation and the associated risks of a global growth reflation, and that policy rates would be sharply increased in 2008-09.

This week, however, the JPMorgan research group published its latest global economic outlook, arguing that we are headed toward a global recession, negative global inflation and sharply lower policy rates in the U.S. and advanced economies–a 180-degree turn from its previous position. What a difference a year makes!

Do you have any further doubt that we’re headed toward a global deflation or–better–a global stag-deflation? Read on: Aggregate demand is now collapsing in the U.S. and advanced economies, and sharply decelerating in emerging markets. There is a huge excess capacity for the production of manufactured goods in the global economy, as the massive, and excessive, capital expenditure in China and Asia (Chinese real investment is now close to 50% of gross domestic product) has created an excess supply of goods that will remain unsold as global aggregate demand falls.

Commodity prices are in free fall, with oil prices alone down over 50% from their July peak (and the Baltic Freight Index–the best measure of international shipping costs–is 90% down from its peak in May). Finally, labor market slack is sharply rising in the U.S., and rising, as well, in Europe and other advanced economies.

Next question: What are financial markets telling us about the risks of stag-deflation?

First, yields on 10-year Treasury Bonds have fallen by about 50 basis points since Oct. 14, getting close to their previous 2008 lows. Also, the two-year Treasury yield has fallen by about 150 basis points in the last month.

Second, gold prices–a typical hedge against rising global inflation–are now sharply falling.

Finally, and more important, yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) due in five years or less have now become higher than yields on conventional Treasuries of similar maturity. The difference between yields on five-year Treasuries and five-year TIPS, known as the break-even rate, fell to minus 0.43 percentage points.

This is a record. Since the difference between the conventional Treasuries and TIPS is a proxy for expected inflation, the TIPS market is now signaling that investors expect inflation to be negative over the next five years, as a severe recession is ahead of us.

So goods, labor, commodity, financial and bond markets are all sending the same message: Stagnation/recession and deflation (or stag-deflation) is ahead of us.

Don’t be surprised, then, if six months from now the Fed and other central banks in advanced economies will start to worry–as they did in 2002-03 after the 2001 recession–about deflation rather than inflation. In those years, when the U.S. experienced a deflation scare, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke wrote several pieces explaining how the U.S. could resort to very unorthodox policy actions to prevent a deflation and a liquidity trap like the one experienced by Japan in the 1990s. Those writings may, very soon, have to be carefully read and studied again.

Finally, while in the short run a global recession will be associated with deflationary forces, some ask whether we should worry about rising inflation in the middle run? This argument–that the financial crisis will eventually lead to inflation–is based on the view that governments will be tempted to monetize the fiscal costs of bailing out the financial system, and that this sharp growth in the monetary base will eventually cause high inflation.

In a variant of the same argument, some posit that–as the U.S. and other economies face debt deflation–it would make sense to reduce the debt burden of borrowers (households and, now, governments taking on their balance sheets the losses of the private sector) by wiping out the real value of such nominal debt with inflation.

So should we worry that this financial crisis and its fiscal costs will eventually lead to higher inflation? The answer to this complex question: likely not.

First, the massive injection of liquidity in the financial system–literally trillions of dollars in the last few months–is not inflationary, as it accommodates the demand for liquidity that the current financial crisis and investors’ panic have triggered. Thus, once the panic recedes and this excess demand for liquidity shrinks, central banks can and will mop up all this excess liquidity.

Second, the fiscal costs of bailing out financial institutions would eventually lead to inflation if the increased budget deficits associated with this bailout were to be monetized, as opposed to financed with a larger stock of public debt. As long as such deficits are financed with debt–rather than by the printing presses–such fiscal costs will not be inflationary, as taxes will have to be increased over the next few decades and/or government spending reduced to service this large increase in the stock of public debt.

Third, to the question raised earlier: Wouldn’t central banks be tempted to monetize these fiscal costs–rather than allow a mushrooming of public debt–and thus wipe out with inflation these fiscal costs of bailing out lenders/investors and borrowers? Not likely in my view. Even a relatively dovish Bernanke Fed cannot afford to let the inflation-expectations genie out of the bottle via a monetization of the fiscal bailout costs. It cannot afford to do that because a rise in inflation expectations will eventually force a nasty and severely recessionary Volcker-style monetary-policy tightening to get the genie back into its bottle.

Fourth, inflation can reduce the real value of debts as long as it is unexpected, and as long as debt is in the form of long-term nominal fixed-rate liabilities. An attempt to increase inflation would not be unexpected: Investors would write debt contracts to hedge against such a risk if monetization of the fiscal deficits does occur.

Also, in the U.S. economy, a lot of debts–of the government, of the banks, of the households–are not long-term nominal fixed-rate liabilities. They are, rather, shorter-term variable-rate debts. Thus, a rise in inflation in an attempt to wipe out debt liabilities would lead to a rapid repricing of such shorter term, variable-rate debt. And thus expected inflation would not succeed in reducing the part of the debts that are now of the long-term nominal fixed-rate form–i.e., you can fool all of the people some of the time (unexpected inflation) and some of the people all of the time (those with long-term nominal fixed-rate claims), but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.

In conclusion, a sharp slack in goods, labor and commodity markets will lead to global deflationary trends over the next year. And the fiscal costs of bailing out borrowers and/or lenders/investors will not be inflationary, as central banks will not be willing to incur the costs of very high inflation as a way to reduce the real value of the debt burdens of governments and distressed borrowers. The costs of rising expected inflation will be much higher than the benefits of using the inflation tax to pay for the fiscal costs of cleaning up the mess that this most severe financial crisis has created.

Nouriel Roubini, a professor at the Stern Business School at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, is a weekly columnist for Forbes.com.
fonte: http://www.plusev.ca/nouriel-roubini-tackles-the-inflationdeflation-debate/

http://www.atlantic-storm.org/

Ecco "simulato" l'inizio di una pandemia globale....anno 2005.

US, Russian military chiefs meet in Finland

By MATTI HUUHTANEN – Oct 21, 2008

HELSINKI, Finland (AP) — American and Russian military leaders met Tuesday for unannounced talks in Finland, discussing Georgia, the Black Sea and Afghanistan, officials said. It was the highest-level military meeting between the two countries since Russia's war with U.S. ally Georgia in August.

The participants included Adm. Michael G. Mullen, the chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, and his Russian counterpart, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, according to U.S. Embassy spokesman Kim Hargan. Makarov became Russia's top military officer in June.

"They didn't want it to be high-profile or anything," Hargan said, explaining why it was unannounced. He refused to elaborate further.

Finland, a neutral Nordic country, shares an 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) border with Russia and was the venue of several U.S.-Soviet meetings during the Cold War. Adm. Juhani Kaskeala, the head of Finland's defense forces, organized the meeting at an isolated manor house outside Helsinki.

Mullen later called U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to update him, saying they had a "productive, businesslike conversation," Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said, adding that Gates was comfortable with the meeting taking place.

Defense officials in Moscow and at NATO would not officially comment on the talks.

A U.S. defense official said Makarov suggested the meeting and the two military leaders covered a range of topics including Georgia, Black Sea operations, and Afghanistan as it related to NATO involvement.

It was the first time the two had met each other in person, he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the meeting.

An internal Pentagon news service report said the two had spoken previously on the telephone.

After the Georgia-Russian crisis broke out Aug. 6, Mullen spoke on the phone with Makarov, who presided over Russia's incursion into Georgia over the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the American Forces Press Service said, quoting an unidentified source.

The report said after the fighting started, Mullen and Makarov discussed the flight of U.S. Air Force C-17 transport jets that carried Georgian troops serving in Iraq back to the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, and later they discussed the USS Mount Whitney, which carried humanitarian supplies to the Georgian port of Poti.

Makarov gave assurances that Russia would not interfere with the U.S. military movements, the Pentagon report said.

The war between Russia and Georgia strained already tense ties. Georgia, a stalwart U.S. ally and aspiring NATO member, has received hundreds of millions of dollars in economic aid and its armed forces received extensive training from U.S. instructors.

Those moves have irked Russia, which views Georgia as part of its historical sphere of influence and fears the prospect of another former Soviet republic joining NATO.

Washington and Moscow have also clashed over U.S. plans to base elements of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Russia fears the system would be used to either spy on its military or reduce its nuclear deterrent.

Two months ago, Russia halted military cooperation with NATO, accusing the West of "double standards" over the Georgia conflict. However, it said it still wants to keep working with the alliance to fight terrorism and drug trafficking.

Moscow said the freeze would halt military exercises, exchanges of military delegations, visits by high-level NATO officials to Moscow and stopovers by NATO warships in Russian ports.

Tuesday's meeting came a day after Mullen became the first chairman of the Joint Chiefs to visit Belgrade since 1951. He met Serbian counterpart Gen. Zdravko Ponos, and the two said military cooperation between their countries was good despite strained political relations over Kosovo.

Associated Press writers Pauline Jelinek in Washington, Constant Brand in Brussels, Belgium, and Mike Eckel in Moscow contributed to this report.


Questi tizi qui fanno summit in giro per il mondo con una certa fretta....

Che ne dite di aprire un topic esclusivo di come ci si stia "attrezzando" in caso di : sommossa popolare nel caso vincesse McCain, nuova pandemia virale, new WWIII , new "BIG One"?
Così...tanto per "sdrammatizzare...:"

Una nota a margine.
Onde evitare altre discussioni infinite sulle future conseguenze delle contromisure prese per fronteggiare il recente collasso finanziario, vorrei far notare che, visti i soldi a pioggia che Paulson sta buttando in giro, a tanta gente sta venendo la tentazione di smettere di pagare il mutuo, dichiarandosi indigenti, per beneficiare dei sussidi del governo [*]. Dopotutto un pranzo gratis fa gola a tutti.

Iniziano a passare con il piattino?


link

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Northcom has announced that two more U.S. military units will be assigned for domestic homeland security missions, bringing the total number of combat ready service members operating inside the U.S. to around 4,700, as fears grow about the increasing militarization of law enforcement.

The announcement follows the controversy surrounding a September 8 Army Times report (revised on September 30), which revealed that the 3rd Infantry Division’s 1st Brigade Combat Team, fresh from combat duties in Iraq, would be operating inside America for tasks including “civil unrest and crowd control,” a detail that was later denied by Northcom despite the concession that forces would be armed with both non-lethal and lethal weapons as well as having access to tanks.

“In the next three years the military plans to activate and train an estimated 4,700 service members for specialized domestic operations, according to Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, commander of U.S. Northern Command, which was created in 2002 for homeland defense missions,” reports the Colorado Independent.

“It’s to help us manage the consequences of a large-scale event,” said Renuart. “We have one [unit] now trained and equipped and assigned to the Northern Command. We’ll grow a second one this calendar year of 2009 and a third one in the calendar year 2010 so we can provide the nation three sets of capabilities that could respond to an event of the size of 9/11 or larger.”[...]continua...

Fonte: link

Citazione:

Molto interessante. Prevedono quindi che le sommosse maggiori scoppieranno nel 2010.

Citazione:

Si, ma sommossa dovuta a cosa? Ai fallimenti finanziari? O ad un evento stile 9/11 che la provochera' per chi sa quale motivo?

Come da copione:

*Ordo Ab Chao: Scandinavian Countries Consider Move to Euro

The Danish and Swedish governments have begun preparing the ground for referendums on joining the euro, as part of a huge political reversal across Europe’s northern fringes in favour of the single currency. Although voters have overwhelming rejected the euro in the past, both countries are now pointing to the recent damage inflicted on their national currencies as evidence that staying out has left them dangerously over-exposed to market vagaries.

Se poi il referendum dovesse andargli male, lo faranno diventare Trattato...

Italy in trouble?

"There are more credit default swaps bet against Italy than any country in the world, except Turkey.

Bloomberg writes:

Spain and Italy are among the European countries worst hit, with government data showing both nations are in the grip of a recession.

"There have been big changes in the credit quality of Spain and Italy, and buying credit-default swaps is a safe-haven bet in a crisis,'' said Philip Gisdakis, a Munich-based credit analyst at UniCredit SpA. " (all'interno dell'articolo vedere i vari link)

fonte:
George Washington's blog

Oggi, come atteso, c'e' stato il taglio dei tassi da parte della BCE e quello ben piu' corposo della BoE, piu' la Svizzera.

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Sono usciti i bollettini del FMI che descrivono una congiuntura in progressivo peggioramento per il 2009, prevedendo una possibile ripresa per il 2010.


Dico io: magari fossero vere quelle previsoni....ci metterei la firma.

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Domenica c'e' la riunione dei capoccia europei e quella dopo del G20.
Quindi, per sapere di che morte morire...basta aspettare ancora un poco.

Citazione:

Occhi aperti.

Nel frattempo anche i giornali economici iniziano a capire cosa sta succedendo:

Deflation: the new threat
Deep global rate cuts show that policymakers fear a drop in price levels, regardless of their brave words.

By Colin Barr, senior writer
NOVEMBER 6, 2008: 2:56 PM ET

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Forget about inflation. The opposite threat - deflation - is what has policymakers sweating now.

Central banks across Europe slashed interest rates again Thursday. The Bank of England cut its policy rate to 3% from 4.5% - a cut three times as big as the market expected - while the European Central Bank trimmed its own rate by half a point, to 3.25%. The moves come a week after the Federal Reserve cut the Fed funds rate to 1%, touching the lows it set earlier this decade before the housing bubble took shape.

The cuts are remarkable because it was only four months ago that the ECB was raising interest rates to stem inflation fears tied to the surging prices of energy and food.

But since then, the deleveraging that has upended the financial sector has accelerated, and economic activity has slowed sharply. Policymakers have changed their tune accordingly, saying falling commodity prices will ease pressures for wage increases and support broad price stability.

"Really scared now"
The rate cuts are so severe, though, they suggest that the issue isn't the absence of fear about inflation. Rather, it's that bankers are worried that the destruction of trillions of dollars of wealth in the collapse of the housing and stock markets will stem demand for goods of all sorts, creating the kind of falling price environment not seen here since the 1930s.

Central bankers "are really scared now," says Lena Komileva, an economist at financial information broker Tullett Prebon in London. "It won't be long till deflation becomes an everyday concern."

Many economists say there's no reason well-managed modern economies should ever have to fret over the prospect of deflation - a drop in the money supply that, by making cash more valuable and lowering prices, slows economic activity and increases the debt burden on people and companies. As Fed chief Ben Bernanke infamously noted in a 2002 speech, a government pushed to the brink has a surefire remedy for falling prices: the printing press.

But the events of the past year have made clear that the mere threat of cranking out more currency isn't enough to restore debt-engulfed economies to equilibrium.[...]
fonte: Fortune

Citazione:

Direi che iniziano a mostrare la vera faccia di questa crisi:

link

link

link

Poi dovrebbero spiegare dove Obama trovera' i soldi se (non nella solita stampante).

link

Citazione:

Se Gesù è riuscito a moltiplicare pane e pesci, per Obama sarà una bazzecola moltiplicare la carta.

[*]The financial crisis that has been sweeping the globe has reshaped nearly every corner of the economy, but no industry has been altered more radically than banking.

Several of the nation’s biggest banks have failed or been absorbed by healthier institutions, leaving three giant “superbanks” with an unprecedented concentration of market power: Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.[...] While that may be good news for emerging giants and the failing companies they helped rescue, the new oligopoly raises troubling questions about regulation and competition, analysts and consumer advocates say.[...]

Iniziamo bene..... qualcuno ci sta ascoltando....
Pensa te che razza di database ne vien fuori....nomi, cognomi, residenza e n°di c/c bancario di chi esprime un'idea contraria....praticamente, in caso di "necessità", una mattina senti suonare il campanello all'alba e tu "sparisci"...o , se sei più fortunato, i n caso di "sicurezza nazionale", qualcuno potrebbe usare la tua identità e navigare in siti "da depravati", sequestrarti il pc e trovare dentro migliaia di foto pedopornografiche....così , tanto per demolire la tua immagine del buon padre di famiglia... Tra l'altro , non sarebbe la prima volta....

goodbye DHL
DHL PERDE $1.5 MILIARDI E LICENZIA 9.500 PERSONE
byebye GM
Il target price di GM portato a $0.00 da Deutsche Bank, che ovviamente consiglia ai clienti un "sell". Non era mai successo nella storia di Wall Street. Per evitare il fallimento...


nessuna pietà...

nnè successo niente

Overnight, people lost their savings. Prices are soaring. Once-crowded restaurants are almost empty. Banks are rationing foreign currency, and companies are finding it dauntingly difficult to do business abroad. Inflation is at 16 percent and rising. People have stopped traveling overseas. The local currency, the krona, was 65 to the dollar a year ago; now it is 130. Companies are slashing salaries, reducing workers’ hours and, in some instances, embarking on mass layoffs.

“No country has ever crashed as quickly and as badly in peacetime,” said Jon Danielsson, an economist with the London School of Economics.

link

- Secondo salvataggio per AIG. Altri 25 miliardi di dollari dopo che in un paio di settimane ne sono stati bruciati quasi 100.

- GM e Ford hanno più passività che attività. Quasi certamente saranno salvate coi soldi pubblici piuttosto che entrare in procedura di amministrazione controllata, su pressioni dello stesso Barak wecanchange Obama [*].

- La World Bank prevede un declino del volume commerciale mondiale per il 2008 (previsione confermata anche dalla crisi che sta passando l'industria navale). Questo significa che anche i paesi emergenti stanno entrando in recessione. Si tratta di una crisi globale (per cui serviranno ovviamente soluzioni globali).