Un limite alla produzione, potenzialmente illimitata di base monetaria è posto dall'obiettivo del mantenimento di un livello dei prezzi relativamente stabile, data la relazione diretta che storicamente si è osservata tra inflazione e offerta di moneta
Officially the ECB treats M3 growth as the "first pillar" of a two-pillar strategy that it uses to assess the eurozone's inflation outlook. In principle, the faster M3 growth accelerates, the higher the risk of rising inflation. The ECB has a "reference value", or loose target, for annual M3 growth of 4.5 per cent over the medium term. But the bank says it does not react automatically to deviations from the reference value.
Ed infatti...
THE BROAD MONETARY AGGREGATE M3 Monetary dynamics strengthened in the first few months of 2006. At 7.9%, annual M3 growth in the first quarter of 2006 was broadly unchanged compared with the fourth quarter of 2005, but this conceals a pattern of moderation in the course of the fourth quarter and a subsequent reversal in the course of the first quarter to 8.5% in March. In April, annual M3 growth rose further to 8.8%, a level that was last recorded in mid-2003 at the end of a protracted period of high economic and financial uncertainty
[..] Did central banks respond more strongly to signals from actual inflation or money supply? The data appears to suggest that inflation played a more important role than money supply changes in a central bank's interest rate decision making. This, in turn, would indeed argue that central banks did not pursue a pre-emptive policy but simply waited until their policies led to inflation (or to a build up of inflation pressure) and then reacted to reduce it. Needless to say, conceptually speaking, such a policy fails to prevent inflation as it systematically acts too late.
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